Hans Smits, Port of Rotterdam Authority CEO: “We believe that the bottom of the cycle has been reached. In the second half of the year, I expect throughput to stabilise, bringing the shrinkage for the year as a whole to approximately -12%. In 2010, Rotterdam will then be able to benefit from the predicted, modest increase in world trade and contribute towards the recovery of growth in the Dutch economy. Despite the slump, our market share is actually increasing quite clearly. Investment appears to be paying off. That is why we are now benefiting from the strong movements in trade in crude oil and oil products. On the Maasvlakte, the container sector can push down costs through increases in scale and concentration. The Port Authority will therefore continue to invest in the current port area and Maasvlakte 2”.

Dry bulk
The total quantity of dry bulk fell by 38% to 29 million tonnes. Throughput figures for agribulk (grains, seeds, animal feed ingredients) were down by 1 million tonnes, due to the good harvest in Europe. This is one million tonnes below the ‘normal’ level, given an average European harvest. Demand for agribulk is less sensitive to the economic situation.

Coal throughput was 2 million tonnes down (-14% to 12 million). In the first quarter, there was still considerable demand for energy coal. This started to decline in March and people ate into stocks. The handling of cokes coal fell sharply, due to the decline in demand from the steel industry. In the second half of the year, demand for cokes coal is expected to increase slightly. Throughput figures for ores and scrap plummeted by 60%, to over 8 million tonnes. In Germany, six of the fifteen blast furnaces were closed. It is likely that steel production there will be increased slightly in the coming months. They want to supplement stocks and demand from the United States is also rising. Other dry bulk (mainly minerals for the production of glass, paper, steel and chemicals) took quite a fall, down 28% to 4 million tonnes. Despite further deterioration in the sub-markets, total throughput of minerals will be stable for the coming months, ending at 8-9 million tonnes.

Liquid bulk
The total result for liquid bulk remained more or less unchanged (-0.5%) at 99 million tonnes. Imports of crude oil fell by 4% to 49 million tonnes. This is a better result than one would expect on the basis of the economic trend. In the early months, there was a lot of speculation, however, including temporary storage in tankers. Alongside this, demand for oil products remains high and refinery capacity in other parts of Europe has been closed down. These factors are keeping demand high, at around 50 million tonnes. There was a sharp increase in the transshipment of mineral oil products, by 17%, to over 35 million tonnes. Speculation plays a role, in addition to structural factors such as the trading of regional surpluses and shortages, and blending for an increasing variety of specifications. Due to the considerable capacity in terms of storage (tanks) and transshipment (jetties, buoys, posts) and depth, Rotterdam is an ideal hub for fuel oil, gas oil (diesel), kerosene and petrol. Other liquid bulk was 20% down, to over 14 million tonnes. This was largely attributable to imports, which fell 27% to almost 9 million tonnes. (Basic) chemicals, which make up the majority of this category of goods, were down as much as a quarter. The handling of vegetable oils suffered from the declining demand from Eastern Europe. Imports of biofuels were lower than anticipated. If the oil price rises (further), this will, in principle, be advantageous for blending with biofuels.

General cargo
The general cargo sector had a bad first six months, recording a decline of 10 million tonnes (-16%), to 57 million tonnes. Both incoming and outgoing trade in containers fell by double figures. In weight, throughput was almost 15% down, to almost 47 million tonnes; in numbers, over 15% to 4.6 million TEU (-817,000). There were signs of recovery in throughput from February onwards, thanks to the rationalisation of services and concentration on Rotterdam. Partly on the back of this, feeder traffic is also increasing, mainly to the Baltic area. Container throughput is expected to fall again in July/August, followed by a recovery in connection with the festive season. It is also likely that the cooperation between shipping lines will be extended further. This provides new opportunities for Rotterdam.

Roll-on / roll-off transport was 14% down, to almost 8 million tonnes. The economic decline in the United Kingdom, by far the most important roro market, is particularly marked. Furthermore, the fall in the value of the pound is pushing down exports from the continent. The early outbreak of the crisis in the UK could be followed by an early recovery. In that case, throughput could rally slightly this year, to almost 17 million tonnes. The pessimistic scenario is 2 to 3 million tonnes lower.

The handling of other general cargo was way down, by 27% (-1 mln. tonnes). The massive fall in demand for steel, which accounts for about half of general cargo throughput, and metals is being particularly hard felt. Fruit handling is a little less sensitive to the economic situation, but is under structural pressure due to the ongoing process of containerisation. The transshipment of paper/pulp is declining because fewer advertisements mean thinner newspapers and magazines. Project cargo is attractive to the stevedores, but adds little weight to the throughput figures.